Markets · 6 pages · 12 min
An inverted curve has a short rate above a long rate, and people dispute what that gap means.
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An inversion is a shape in which a shorter maturity yields more than a longer maturity, the opposite of the upward slope often treated as ordinary. The picture is a fact about today's prices, and the argument starts when someone treats that picture as a forecast of a slowdown. The opening covers short yield above long yield, several stories fit one shape, and policy can lift the short end.
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